Thursday, May 20, 2010

Exhaustion run?

Dow lost almost 300+ points and most of the industries actually made new lows vs. S&P which did not. Could this be the exhaustion run that will turn around things. At the face of it, it feels like that. It is just an hour into trading and we still have whole day with us.

One thing is for sure. If we do close with minimal losses, then we are in the process of making true bottom. With the oversold nature of equities and also market wide indicators, it is only a matter of time before we pick up.

Another observation is that almost all of the stocks/etfs are today trading OUTSIDE of their major Put/Call action. This does not bode well for either those that are shorting or going long as equilibrium is lost. Hence, even more evidence that this will correct itself to the upside sooner than we can imagine.

Another major factor. During a real panic attack you'd rush to safer instruments. Dollar is barely positive. Gold is negative and so is silver.

One could argue that in a true bear market everything sells off and probably we are there. But are we there yet? Not sure. But the current action is definitely not good for bulls. Price/action needs to correct itself either ways.

Time will tell which way it is going. Today IMHO is the decision day. Either we close in such a fashion that will force us to think we have re-entered bear market or that we have made a significant bottom. I say the latter. :-)

Good luck.
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