Sunday, May 23, 2010

Weekly close negative - S&P will never see 1100+ again

This is going to be a bold statement. But if we close this week (week of 24th May 2010) below previous week, then there is a more than 85% probability that we will NEVER ever see anything above 1110 again during our lifetime.

This analysis is based on lot of trend dictating factors including treasuries/currencies/yields/risk taken together into account. Such analysis on a WOW (week over week) basis has turned negative and we only await confirmation this week.

In fact, some of these indicators/charts are currently at a 9 month low even though we are yet to make a 6 month low on S&P. This coming week is very crucial and unless we hold the 6 month low, we will clearly test 9 month low and on our way to 950 area in a flash.

Another influencing factor is that historically last week of every month has closed lower than previous week. This week adds more spice to the equation because if we do follow this pattern and close lower, then we have the potential of bear market hovering over our heads.

Let's see how it pans out.

Good Luck all.
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